There is only one sure thing when projecting the future: that you’ll be wrong. But you still need forecasts to build business plans and sales projections. With that caveat in place, we submit our revised online banking and bill payment projections through the next decade. We have lowered our projection for 1998-2000 by about 25% compared to a year ago as Web banking programs were rolled out somewhat slower in 1997 that we had expected.

Still, our estimates run 50% to 75% higher than most others we’ve seen. But our definition of “online banking user” is more liberal than most. We include any household that accesses their bank, credit union or credit card account online; or anyone who pays a bill online (whether or not they access account information). We do not include users who only access a brokerage account online unless they pay bills from that account. “Online” covers any data connection, Web, email, direct-dial, PFM software, handheld computer, pager, screenphone, etc. The connection can occur at home, work, or from a public access terminal. The only devices we are excluding in our definition are plain old telephones and ATMs.

Online Banking and Bill Payment Users

millions of U.S. households using online banking and/or bill payment each month

*Accounts include any one or more of: checking accounts, FDIC-insured deposit accounts, installment loans (such as car, boat, home equity), line of credits, home mortgages, business loans, home mortgages, credit cards, or debit cards. Does not include brokerage, mutual fund or other security accounts. Nor does it include non-financial institution accounts such as, prepaid telephone cards, digital cash accounts held outside financial institutions. Bill payment includes any bill authorized online at the Web site of a bank, biller or third party, or authorized through direct-dial software such as Quicken or CitiBank’s Direct Access.