Forrester's Ron Shevlin weighs in Jan 10 with an estimate of the amount of deposit balances chasing higher rates online. Using recent (Q4 2005) survey data gathered from 4700 online households, he concludes that 30 percent of online consumers have $10,000 or more in liquid assets. Furthermore, three out of four of those households (24 percent of all online households) are interested in increasing the rate paid on their savings accounts. But one in four of those wouldn't move until they could get 3.5 percent or more in additional interest, an unlikely scenario for most consumers. That leaves 18 percent of online households (24 percent x 74 percent) ready, willing, and able to make sizable deposit moves online.

Analysis
To quantify the amount of deposits in play, a number of assumptions must be made: the amount of liquid assets held in checking accounts; the amount that would be available to move to another account; and the willingness to move balances for various rate differentials (see the Forrester report for complete details). Forrester's conservative analysis assumed that only those willing to move for 1 percent or less in rate differential (6 percent of all online households) would take action, potentially moving $28 billion from low-interest checking accounts to high-interest savings accounts.

Taking a less conservative approach, one could also argue that with many direct banks paying 3 percent more than typical interest-bearing checking accounts, the potential deposit switchers are much more prevalent, closer to the 18 percent we derived in the first paragraph. Under these less conservative assumptions, much more would be at stake, as much as $60 billion or more. Furthermore, the Forrester estimate considers money being held only in checking accounts and does not include other liquid assets in savings accounts, CDs, and money-market funds.

Whether $28 billion or $60 billion, the total deposits at play are a small percentage (0.5 percent to 1.0 percent) of the $6 trillion in insured deposits in the United States.

Action Item
We highly recommend the report for anyone looking to reprice deposits for online customers, or even if you just want to understand what's at stake. The report is available free-of-charge for Forrester clients, or $249 pay-per-view from its website.

--JB