| By Jim Bruene on July 3, 2009 3:16 AM | Comments (1) |
TowerGroup has just released a new research note discussing the growing adoption of mobile banking in the United States. The research unit of MasterCard is predicting a five-fold increase in active users (note 1) between year-end 2009 and year-end 2013.
In comparison, we (note 2) are projecting a four-fold increase. But either way, it's a phenomenal growth curve reflecting a market that financial institutions must pay attention to.
Following are the numbers Tower released; more details are contained in the full report (purchase here). I also compared to those that we projected in our Jan 17 Online Banking Report.
Please note: TowerGroup forecasts active USERS; we forecast active HOUSEHOLDS. There are about 1.9 adults (18+) per household in the United States, but often, not all of the adults in the household are active banking users, so it's a bit hard to compare the two figures. But if you assume 1.2 to 1.4 mobile banking users per household (note 3), we are pretty close this year, but TowerGroup is a bit more bullish five years out.
| TowerGroup (May 2009) | Online Banking Report (Jan 2009) | Online Banking Report (Jan 2009) | |
| Basis | Active U.S. users | Active U.S. Households (HH) | Active U.S. users assuming 1.2/HH now, 1.4/HH in 2013 |
| 2008 | 4.6 mil | 3.5 mil | 4.2 mil |
| 2009 | 10 mil | 7.5 mil | 9.0 mil |
| 2013 | 53 mil | 30 mil | 42 mil |
| CAGR (08 vs 13) | 63% | 54% | 58% |
Sources: Online Banking Report, Jan 2009; TowerGroup, May 2009
Notes:
1. Active mobile users have used the service within the past 90 days.
2. See our Online Banking Report: Mobile and Online Banking Forecast or the Online Banking Report: Banking on the iPhone for complete details.
3. We assume the number of mobile users per household will grow over time starting with 1.2 per household in 2009 to 1.4 per household in 2013.
Given the growing penetration of technology, the results are not counter intuitive. However, I would be slightly conservative and go more with your results as an increase 43 million seems steep... thats almost 60% of all bank customers.. right?