It's always difficult to gauge actual consumer demand for new services. Traditional market research, while providing some broad intent data (e.g., "yeah, that sounds like something I might buy"), doesn't really do a very good job in telling you whether real customers will use the service. The problem is that in the real world, customers have real concerns about new products and most are unwilling to spend very much time learning about them.

So it's always great to find financial institutions willing to share usage data on their online or mobile services. This week, First General Credit Union wins our undying gratitude (and a free subscription to Netbanker) by revealing its person-to-person payments numbers in the latest issue of Credit Union Journal. 

The CU uses iPay Technologies P2P payment service which is provided at no-cost to its deluxe bill-payment clients. Keep in mind, this is a small $44 million credit union serving 5,000 members, so the raw numbers aren't large but the percentages are interesting:

Number of online banking users:	500 (10% of members)
Number of bill-pay users:	200 (40% of online banking users)
Number of P2P payment users:	3 (1.5% of bill-pay users,        0.6% of online banking users)

Analysis: The credit union says it hasn't promoted the P2P feature, which is offered free of charge. It's not even mentioned on its website, except on slide 22 of its online demo. So this isn't a representative sample for a financial institution looking to drive usage to the product. However, a 2% penetration (of online/mobile customers) is along the lines of what we expect this year nationwide. Longer-term, we expect usage to grow at least 10-fold from that level (see note below).

Note: For more information on P2P payments including a 15-year usage forecast, see our recent Online Banking Report: Making the Case for P2P Payments (published Dec. 2009).