The world's largest online banking base (note 1) grew an impressive 11% year-over-year, rising to 22.8 million active users, an increase of 2.2 million from 30 Sep 2006 (note 2). 

Bill payment grew slower, up 7% or 800,000 users, ending the period at 11.6 million active users. Overall bill pay volume is $224 billion annually, or $1,600 per user per month. Bill pay as a percent of online banking fell more than one point to just under 51% (note 3).  

Online Banking     Bill Pay     % of OL using Bill Pay

2007        22.8 mil            11.6 mil              50.8%

2006        20.6 mil            10.8 mil              52.4%

Change    +2.2 mil            +800,000            (1.6%)
                +10.7%               +7.4%

Notes:
1. As far as we know, no bank in the world has more active online users; however, one could argue that PayPal, with 37.5 million active users in the latest quarter, is larger. Interestingly, ING Direct is closing in on BofA on a worldwide basis. With its Sharebuilder acquisition, ING Direct has 20 million accounts worldwide, about 30% in the United States, although not all are active, which BofA defines as being online within the past 90 days.

2. According to Doug Brown, Bank of America's SVP Product Innovation E-Commerce Channel Services, as cited during his BAI Retail Delivery presentation.

I'm heading home from my 14th Retail Delivery Show, sponsored by BAI. The show has evolved over the years but at the core, still remains a huge technology conference. With more than 5,000 in attendance, equally split between the buy side and the sell side, it's a one-stop shopping experience for just about any piece of software, hardware, or expertise you'll need for all your retail channels, online, branch, ATM, call center, and especially this year, the mobile front (note 1).

Mobile rules
For the second year in a row, mobile delivery was a hot subject, with a number of great presentations on the subject. I didn't attend them all, but here are highlights of what I saw:

• Bankinter demonstrated how the mobile channel has as much utility, if not more, than Internet banking. My favorite stat from its presentation: 20% of the bank's retail interest rate swaps, about 200 per month, are initiated via cellphone.
• South Africa's FNB, Absa, and other banks are having such success with the mobile channel that they expect mobile banking customers to surpass online customers sometime in 2008.
• Richard Crone, Crone Consulting, was mobbed like a rock star after his presentation the first day; people crowded five deep around the podium to hand over a business card in exchange for a copy of Crone's presentation. 
• Firethorn CEO Tripp Rackley announced at an invitation-only breakfast-gathering that his company had been acquired hours earlier by Qualcomm for a cool $210 million.
• Bank of America disclosed it had attracted 500,000 active users to its mobile banking service launched 6 months ago. Although, that's more mobile users than all other U.S. financial institutions combined (note 2), it's only 2% of the bank's 22.8 million active online bankers. According to TowerGroup, 90% of those who tried mobile banking at BofA have remained active with 99% checking balances, 87% looking at transaction history, 10% making funds transfers, and 5% paying a bill.

Online banking is a virtual no-show
While the big online banking vendors were out in force, fewer small companies were out touting online banking solutions. Only 28 of 350 exhibitors listed "online banking" as one of their product areas, compared to 41 showing CRM solutions and 70 with branch banking products. 

There was even less activity in the educational sessions. It wasn't until the second-to-last session of the conference that "online" was included in a session, The Next Generation of Online Banking: Profiting from Untapped Markets, by Forrester's Cathy Graeber, and Washington Trust's Michael Rauh (see BAI coverage here). 

Alt-payments on stage
On the first day, Steve Mott of BetterBuyDesign chaired a panel discussion, Debit - The Next Generation of Profitability, with PayPal's Dan Schatt (formerly of Celent) and HSBC's Daniel J. Eckert discussing Tempo (formerly DebitMan). The session barely touched on traditional debit and was much more focused on what's now called "decoupled debit" and its potential to disrupt the Visa/MasterCard/AmEx/Discover hegemony (see HSBC article below).  

More information
—BAI's online coverage included blogs, podcasts, and longer articles (here).

—American Banker Technology Editor Steve Bills filed several reports from the conference (subscription required):

• Greenspan: Don't Blame Regulators
• Mobile Shift: Payments a Key Next Step
• HSBC Card: Decoupled, with a Twist
• Mobile Banking's Buzz Finally Matched by Marketing

Notes:

1. Mobile consultant Richard Crone counts 76 mobile vendors operating in the United States plus at least four more operating in stealth mode.

2. Online Banking Report estimate, also same conclusion reached by TowerGroup in recent report.

Editor's Note: I've been sitting on this post for a few weeks because I don't want to sound like I'm on a virtual soapbox. But since so many influential banking execs were in attendance, I feel it's important to provide an alternative view. So...

<Climbing on soapbox> Am I the only one who thought the "branch experience" keynote at November's BAI Retail Delivery Conference was about 5 to 10 years behind the times?

Sure, I like the Umpqua Bank story as much as the next person, probably more so. I went to CEO Ray Davis's talk in a back room at Retail Delivery about ten years ago and was blown away by his retail innovations. It's in the top four or five most memorable presentations I've ever heard, and I'm glad the strategy has worked so well for them.

And I'm all for remodeling branches to keep up with times, but the Microsoft-produced video he showed, which was shot in Umpqua's Pearl District branch in Portland, was so far-fetched it bordered on ludicrous. (Note: This was Microsoft's "vision" of banking's future, not the bank's. Umpqua merely provided the futuristic location. Here's Microsoft's press release.)

The video – intended to demonstrate how in the future a fully networked high-tech, high-touch branch could serve customers better – was visually appealing, and, if there was no Internet, it might even be on the mark. But why would the wired diva in the video pay $20 to take a cab to a branch to complete her mortgage application? Surely she would have logged in, perhaps via video conference if needed, and handled it from her home or office, saving not only the $40, but also the half-hour trip. 

Umpqua succeeded because it's a great community bank, not because it had its own brand of coffee and Starbucks-like interiors. Those gimmicks grabbed attention and brought in new customers, but the bank thrived because it created an environment where its front-line employees were able to pay attention to customers and serve them better than its mega-bank competitors.

But today it would be a waste of resources to embark on a strategy similar to Umpqua's. By the time it would become fully implemented, 2009/2010 at the earliest, the world will have moved still further from the old apply-for-your-mortgage-in-our-lovely-branch model.

What's far more important going forward is the "out-of-branch experience" – online, phone, and mobile-phone hybrids. You will have ten, twenty, even 100 times more interactions with your customers outside the branch than inside.

Yes, those branch interactions are still vitally important, especially if they involve a new account or serious service issue. But branches will never again be the driver of customer satisfaction they once were. Bank on it. <Stepping down now>

For more information:

• See our Online Banking Report #128, The Demise of the Branch

I had a good chat with CashEdge <cashedge.com> VP Neil Platt at BAI's Retail Delivery last week. The company is busy working on a much-needed channel integration initiative so that account applications begun online can be completed with a phone call or even a branch visit, with no need to start all over from scratch.

The company hopes it can capture half of what it estimates is 70% of completed online applications that go unfunded
(see chart inset).
If that's true, the payback for the solution, at least at larger financial institutions, will likely be measured in months, if not weeks.

Other projects in the works:

• Cross-selling other bank products during the new account-opening process
• Facilitating other types of applications, such as loans
• Improving risk management by tapping additional data sources outside the credit bureau

CashEdge is a great example of a specialist that carves out a profitable niche in a relatively narrow, but risky area of online operations, new account funding. Thanks to big clients such as Citibank, the company is on track to facilitate one million online account openings this year, about a quarter of the estimated 3.5 to 4 million new checking and savings accounts opened this year online (Note: CashEdge estimates). 

The company ranked number 101 in INC Magazine's list of the 500 fastest growing private companies. According to the published figures, the 177-person company grew from just over $1 million in revenues in 2002, to approximately $10 million in 2005.

"The biggest profit center at banks is customer ignorance, which banks have mistaken for customer loyalty."
-- Gary Hamel, speaking to 1,000+ bankers at BAI's Retail Delivery Conference, Nov. 15, 2006

I've always been a sucker for management-guru speakers. I can still remember Tom Peters speaking at a sold-out show in Peoria, Illinois, back when I was a wet-behind-the-ears management-trainee for Caterpillar. It was 20 years ago during the height of "In Search of Excellence" mania and it helped me realize a lot can be done to improve business performance.

So every year I make it a point to sit up front when BAI trots out the guru-du-jour to inspire the banking crowd. This year, it was Gary Hamel, a Harvard guy that, I'm sorry to say, I hadn't heard of prior to Wednesday (see the End Note for a summary of his recommendations presented to the BAI crowd).

But man did he grab my attention with his challenge to the assembled bankers and tech-company reps (see quote above). He believes banks are vulnerable as customers become better equipped to compare the price of various financial services, a natural role of the Internet.

The importance of switching tools
Hamel believes financial services loyalty will disappear once customers discover how easy it is to move their accounts to pick up a hundred basis points on their savings rate, or avoid $35 overdraft fees.

In his BAI presentation, Hamel pointed to U.K.-based uSwitch <uswitch.com> as an example of a new tool to help financial customers compare and switch banking accounts (we'll profile it in an upcoming article).

As Hamel was delivering his keynote, Intuit was busy in a nearby Mandalay Bay eatery briefing analysts on its new account switching service, scheduled to go live December 15. The clever service is built on the Teknowledge aggregation engine acquired last year (data sheet here). Intuit's service is similar to Yodlee's service announced in September (see our coverage here). We'll be covering it in more detail as it goes live. 

End Note:

Hamel's management philosophy
I have yet to read Hamel's books, but what he talked about Wednesday could be boiled down to the following:

• Employees shouldn't be "managed" they should be "led."
• In practice, he'd like to see nearly all management eliminated and replaced by small, self-managed teams working to achieve company goals.
• As much as possible, teams would make their own product, pricing, and staffing decisions.
• Compensation would be highly dependent on the team's results in achieving the ambitious profit goals set for them by the company.
• His examples: Whole Foods, W.L. Gore, and Google.      

During 11 years of publishing Online Banking Report, we've written about 500 words on so-called "mobile banking."

Even though it was a much-hyped topic in the late 1990s, our answer when asked about mobile banking was, "Fix your Web-based banking, add email alerts, and mobile will take care of itself."

But it looks like times may be a-changing. Cingular is throwing its considerable muscle into a phone-centered service using Firethorn's <firethornmobile.com> new platform (see homepage right), and the U.S. market for wireless services is enormous (per MasterCard & Cingular during their Nov. 16 presentation at BAI's Retail Delivery Conference):

• 2 billion mobile phone users worldwide, including 218 million in United States (per Cingular)
• Nearly 80% of U.S households own one (per Forrester)
• $660 billion of revenue for voice, messaging, and data services
• 75 million U.S. mobile phone users sent a text message in September (per M:Metrics, 20 Nov. 2006)

Even more interesting, ClairMail shared market research showing that nearly two-thirds of U.S. consumers aged 18 to 34 have used text messaging during the past three months, demonstrating that even in the laggard U.S. market, a core group of consumers is ready, willing, and able to use the phone for more than just voice calling.

Analysis
There are three main reasons why mobile banking's time has arrived:

1. It works on common phones: Previous generations only worked on a subset of high-end PDAs; now most mobile phones can handle mobile banking.

2. It has a business case: Mobile banking can both increase fee income by being a core component of a Premium Online Banking service (see Online Banking Report #109) AND lower costs by migrating voice calls away from the IVR and into self-service.

3. The youth movement: Younger consumers interact with each other in real time via text and instant messaging. There is little doubt that they will value the same type of interaction with their bank.

We'll be looking at this subject in much more detail when we publish our first exhaustive report on the subject in January (see Online Banking Report in late January or early February).

BAI's Retail Delivery Conference continues to offer an excellent array of speakers on almost every delivery topic, from the "branch experience" to "optimizing multi-channel delivery." But one area that's barely covered is loan originations. 

Only one session, out of 36 total, dealt with lending issues this year. And it was a last-minute replacement, not even in the program guide, substituting for NetBank and UPS's Banking on Brown, scrubbed after the announcement last week that the effort was being shuttered (see our coverage here).

Cornerstone Advisor's Steve Williams presented Consumer Lending: It's Not Just a Transaction Anymore. Although lightly attended, due to its placement at the closing moments of the show, he discussed a number of great ideas for improving loan originations, both online and in other channels. We'll look at some of them in more detail in coming weeks.

The presentation is available via email from swilliams@crnrstone.com. 

For the next three days, I'll be in Las Vegas looking at the hottest new technology and innovations at the largest financial services event in the world, BAI's Retail Delivery Conference.

I'll report here on some of my favorite topics. If you are there, let me know what you found most interesting by emailing jim@netbanker.com.