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Analyzing Mobile Banking Research
By Brandon McGee on October 9, 2007 1:11 AM | 1 Comments
Each month there is a new report published on the topic of mobile banking adoption (see my Mobile Banking blog for more on the recent Forrester report.) At first glance, there appears to be a wide variance in projections -- from enthusiastic to pessimistic. Yet, as you dig deeper and look at the definitions and methodology, I conclude that the various researchers have arrived at very similar projections.
To illustrate, below are five reports published by the most well-known and highly respected vendors in the financial research industry. By reading the clips below you can see that three reports predict a low penetration number, while the other two reports suggest a more robust adoption. However, it is critical to understand the “base” for each estimate. Some researchers report adoption as a “percentage of total households,” while others project the “percentage of online banking users.”
Now, let’s perform a couple of calculations using with the assumption that 30% of households utilize online banking.
Glass is half empty:
Only 8% of people are interested in Mobile Banking.
Approach: % of Total Households(100,000 Households x 8% Adoption) = 8,000 users
Glass is half full:
More than 30% of people are interested in Mobile Banking
Approach: % of Online Banking Clients(100,000 Households x 30% Online Banking Clients) = 30,000
(30,000 Online Banking Clients x 30% Adoption) = 9,000 usersVariance between the estimates is only 1% or 1,000 users
Even though the headlines suggest very different outlooks about the future of mobile banking, the market penetration predictions vary by just 1%.
So, if you have been asking yourself, “How can two valid surveys return such different results?” The answer: they usually don’t. By looking at the forecast detail, you'll often find very similar projections. For more details on the estimates, refer to the following links:
“We hate to rain on this parade, but here's the reality: Today's consumers still aren't very interested in mobile banking.” - Forrester
“Mobile banking and payments are looming on the horizon, with U.S. market penetration of 10% expected within four years according to a new report from Online Banking Report.” – Online Banking Report
“Just eight percent of online consumers who own a cell phone are interested in using mobile browsing to check account balances.” - Jupiter
“29% of online bankers said they would definitely or probably use banking features if they available on a wireless phone.” - Compete
“By 2010, 35% of online banking households will be using mobile banking, up from less than 1% today.” – Celent
Additional Research on Mobile Banking:
Mobile Banking - Getting it Right This Time - Javelin Strategy & Research
Brandon McGee is vice president and senior product manager at The Huntington National Bank. He is not only the real deal, a genuine industry insider, but also knows exactly what's on the minds of financial service pros as they contemplate the various mobile options. For more great content, check out his blog, Mobile Banking.
