Each month there is a new report published on the topic of mobile banking adoption (see my Mobile Banking blog for more on the recent Forrester report.) At first glance, there appears to be a wide variance in projections -- from enthusiastic to pessimistic. Yet, as you dig deeper and look at the definitions and methodology, I conclude that the various researchers have arrived at very similar projections.  

To illustrate, below are five reports published by the most well-known and highly respected vendors in the financial research industry. By reading the clips below you can see that three reports predict a low penetration number, while the other two reports suggest a more robust adoption. However, it is critical to understand the “base” for each estimate. Some researchers report adoption as a “percentage of total households,” while others project the “percentage of online banking users.”

Now, let’s perform a couple of calculations using with the assumption that 30% of households utilize online banking.

Glass is half empty:

Only 8% of people are interested in Mobile Banking.

(100,000 Households x 8% Adoption) =                                                 8,000 users

Glass is half full:

More than 30% of people are interested in Mobile Banking

(100,000 Households x 30% Online Banking Clients) = 30,000

Even though the headlines suggest very different outlooks about the future of mobile banking, the market penetration predictions vary by just 1%.

So, if you have been asking yourself, “How can two valid surveys return such different results?” The answer: they usually don’t. By looking at the forecast detail, you'll often find very similar projections. For more details on the estimates, refer to the following links:

Additional Research on Mobile Banking:
Mobile Banking - Getting it Right This Time - Javelin Strategy & Research

Brandon McGee is vice president and senior product manager at The Huntington National Bank. He is not only the real deal, a genuine industry insider, but also knows exactly what's on the minds of financial service pros as they contemplate the various mobile options. For more great content, check out his blog, Mobile Banking. 

I had an interesting conversation with Scott Loftesness, partner at Glenbrook Partners, and the man behind the curtain at the most successful blog in the financial services arena, Payments News, on my fave five list.

We were debating the merits of the various mobile banking models as he updated the mobile section of his Payments Boot Camp material. For the most part, we agree as to how the market is likely to evolve. But one small difference is our outlook for SMS/text services.

In the report I wrote at Online Banking Report in February (here), I predicted that SMS/text services would be an important bridge technology to get us to full browser-like mobile banking interfaces. Scott's not so sure.

 Apparently, the major U.S banks agree with Scott, so far. There has been little activity in this area. Fremont Bank is the only one throwing their support behind this technique (previous post here), partnering with ClairMail (see FINOVATE below), the biggest proponent of this model in the United States.

Here's the short-term forecast we published Feb. 23, 2007, in our Mobile Banking report (we go out on the limb through 2016 in the full report). The number shown below is U.S. households that have ever used the given mobile technology to access their bank account balance or transactions:

Original 2-Year Mobile Banking Forecast (23 Feb 2007)

                                        2007  2008

SMS banking 400,000 2 million
Mobile website 600,000 1.2 million
One-touch banking (1) 100,000         250,000
     Total (2)                        900,000 2.5 million

Source: Online Banking Report estimates, +/- 33%, Feb. 23, 2007 (report here); estimates are for Dec. 31 of each year
Notes:
(1) Downloadable banking app, eg. rich user interface
(2) Total is less than the sum, because some households use more than one access method

As you can see, six months ago we expected SMS to be the major driver, especially in 2008 and 2009. However, we are somewhat dubious now. Not because we don't think customers will like it, but because it doesn't look like the big players are planning on supporting it. It's too early to revise our entire model, but based on what we know today, here's how we see the next two years.

Revised 2-Year Mobile Banking Forecast (30 Aug 2007)

                                         2007          2008            2008 Change (from 23 Feb)

SMS banking 50,000 300,000 (1.7 mil)
Mobile website 600,000 1.5 million +250,000
One-touch banking (1) 100,000         350,000        + 100,000
     Total (2)                        700,000 2.0 million  (500,000)

Source: Online Banking Report estimates, +/- 33%, Aug. 30, 2007 (report here); estimates are for Dec. 31 of each year

Why we still like SMS banking

As I was rethinking the forecast, I read Walt Mossberg's column this morning and was reminded why I believe the United States is on the verge of mass-adoption of text-messaging. Mr. Mossberg was extolling the virtues of the new upgraded Yahoo Mail, specifically how it supported text messaging, e.g., users can send a text message to a phone directly from Yahoo Mail on their desktop PC.

Our take: As text-messaging is added to popular desktop email programs, Gmail, Hotmail, and even Outlook, it will make messaging a common activity among the core online banking constituency, the 30-to-55 crowd. As this group warms up to the convenience of text messaging, they will be far more receptive to retrieving basic bank and card-balance data in the same manner.

More important, what do you think? Comments are open. Everyone that leaves a substantive comment on this thread, and emails me their mail address, gets a $5 Starbucks card (note 1).

See the major mobile vendors DEMO their latest at FINOVATE 2007

ClairMail, along with four other mobile banking platform providers, will be DEMOing their latest solutions at our FINOVATE 2007 conference. The Aug. 31 deadline for early-bird admission is approaching quickly, so reserve a seat now.

Note:

1. Industry participants only.