Two weeks ago, Motorola Inc. introduced the same mobile payments platform already being used in Japan and India, opening the door for U.S. banks on a retail payments future that could spell prosperity or doom, depending on the choices they make.

Those loaded alternatives have little to do with the immediate future for mobile payments in this country. Buying cheeseburgers by waving a cell phone will begin as a gee-whiz novelty in this country, packaged in ways that will preserve the bank brand, and allay the current boardroom anxiety that banks are fated to become mere payments utilities.

The real danger to banks is the next generation of m-payments, when the payments chip is miniaturized to fit into a ring or necklace; at that point, opportunities to remind customers of which bank’s card they’re using will disappear, along with the visible screen, taking with them much of the bank’s relationship with its customers. But this generation is here now, says Dan Schatt, a Celent Communications analyst, and likely to shake things up.

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